The World and South Africa Beyond 2012: The Latest Scenarios, Flags, and Probabilities

South African Institute of Race Relations

The South African Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR) is an independent think-tank producing research, policy critiques, and risk analysis on South Africa. SAIRR’s fields of expertise include the economy, business, labour, education, demographics, living conditions, crime, security, healthcare, land reform, service delivery, politics, and government affairs. The organisation benchmarks itself on telling subscribers today what they will read in the media in two or three years’ time.

The Unit for Risk Analysis at SAIRR is hosting a breakfast with Clem Sunter on under the theme ‘The World and South Africa Beyond 2012: The Latest Scenarios, Flags, and Probabilities’ on 28 June 2012 in Johannesburg.

Clem Sunter was head of the gold and uranium division at Anglo American at a time when it was the world’s leading gold producer. He shot to scenario stardom in the 1990s after he drew up a scenario presentation entitled ‘The World and South Africa in the 1990s’ in which he outlined two scenarios: the ‘High Road’, in which negotiation would led to a peaceful political transition in South Africa, and the ‘Low Road’, characterised by confrontation leading to civil war and a wasteland. He is the co-author, with Chantel Ilbury, of the popular scenario planning trilogy The Mind of a Fox: Scenario Planning in Action; Games Foxes Play: Planning for Extraordinary Times; and Socrates and the Fox: A Strategic Dialogue.

At a time of great global and domestic policy and economic uncertainty this is a valuable opportunity for you, your staff, and your clients to come and hear where Sunter believes South Africa and the world are headed beyond 2012 and to put your questions to him.

Time: 7h30 for 8h00 until 9h30

Cost: Premium subscribers to the Unit for Risk Analysis and the media attend free of charge. All other subscribers and members pay R200. Guests pay R300.

RSVP: To RSVP, send a proof of payment to Carol Archibald or Catherine Schulze by 25 June 2012.

Enquiries: Archibald, Tel: 011 482 7221, E-mail: or Schulze, Tel: 011 482 7221, E-mail:

Payment can be made into the following account:

Name of Bank: FNB Braamfontein
Account Number: 50542071390
Branch: 251905

Please remember to use your name as a reference to allow us to trace your payment.

Alternatively we can process your AMEX, VISA, Diners Club, or Mastercard payments if you supply us with your card number, expiry date, and the three or four digit number on the back of your card along with your name as it appears on the card.

Places will be only be reserved on confirmation of payment. No payments will be taken at the door. We expect this event to be oversubscribed so please book early.

For more about the South African Institute of Race Relations, refer to

Event Start Date: 
Thursday, 28 June, 2012
Event Venue: 
Country Club Johannesburg, 1 Napier Road, Auckland Park

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